牛鞭效应的影响因素及其应对策略探讨提纲
摘 要
牛鞭效应是供应链中一类典型的、由不确定性导致的复杂现象。它是供应链中成员理想行为导致的，是一种需求变异放大现象，信息传递时因无法实现共享而产生扭曲，这种信息放大现象在图形上很像一根甩起的赶牛鞭，根部（最下游客户端)只要发生轻微抖动，就会引起末梢（原始供应商端）较大的波动，牛鞭效应可以使节点成员蒙受损失，削弱整体竞争力。
牛鞭效应对企业的.效益甚至整个国家的经济会造成严重的影响，多年来一直受到人们的关注。减小供应链中的牛鞭效应是实现供应链管理的关键，也是提升供应链企业竞争力的有效方式之一。
本文在总结前人研究结果的基础上，集中阐述了供应链管理、牛鞭效应的相关概念及内涵，对牛鞭效应产生原因从系统原因和技术原因两个层面进行了深刻的分析，在此基础上讨论并研究了牛鞭效应对供应链管理以及国民经济造成的危害，并就如何弱化牛鞭效应提出了个人的看法。
本文从供应链管理的角度进行了概括分析。全文共分为四个部分：措施做了展望和分析。
本文的创新是要体现在从系统和技术两个方面综合分析牛鞭效应的产生原因，并在此基础上讨论分析了牛鞭效应的弱化措施，如信息共享系统，大规模定制策略，战略同盟等等。
关键词：供应链管理；牛鞭效应；信息共享系统；供应商管理库存
Abstract
The Bullwhip Effect is a typical things in the supply chains, which is caused by the uncertainty complex situation. It is resulted from the members of the supply chains.
The Bullwhip Effect is effected in the enterprise or even the whole national economy. How to decrease the Bullwhip Effect of the supply chain is a key to the supply chain managment, also is an importaint way to enhance competitiveness of enterprises in the supply chain.
The paper focuses on asset the Bullwhip Effect and supply chain managment, and its related concept and connotation. It analyses system reasons and technical reasons.Based on that, this paper disgusts and studies the harm of Bullwhip Effect to supply chain managment and national economy. And then put the personal views of how to weaken the Bullwhip Effect.
This article is fixed on the supply chain management. And it contains four parts: the first part discussed the system reasons and technical reasons to the Bullwhip Effect; the second part analysis the harms to the supply chain management and national economy from both the macro and micro; the third part arising the ways of how to weakening the effects of the Bullwhip Effect. Finally making the outlook and analysis of weakening the Bullwhip Effect.
The main innovation in the paper is reflected in analyseing the system reasons and technical reasons of the Bullwhip Effect, and then analysis the weakening measures of the Bullwhip Effect,such as mass customization,strategy strategic alliance, information-sharing systems and so on.
Key words: Supply Chain Management；Bullwhip Effect；Information-sharing Systems；Vinder Management Inventory
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